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Pachter: Wii Outsold PS3 and Xbox 360 Combined in April
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter is predicting a huge software sales spike for April and big Wii sales once again. He also thinks PS3 edged out 360 for the month.
Posted by James Brightman on Monday, May 12, 2008


With the April NPD video game sales data expected this Thursday, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has issued his usual preview note. He expects a whopping 113 percent jump in software sales to $830 million thanks in large part to three big hits: Grand Theft Auto IV, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time/Darkness and Mario Kart Wii. He also expects "continued strength" from Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Wii Play, Guitar Hero III, and Rock Band.

On the hardware front, Pachter has forecast 600,000 units sold for Wii, 275,000 for Xbox 360 and 290,000 for PS3. This compares to prediction market simExchange's numbers of 734,000 for Wii, 381,000 for Xbox 360 and 363,000 for PS3. Pachter also forecasts 550,000 units sold for DS, 235,000 for PSP, and 160,000 for PS2. Pachter said his forecasts "reflect our belief that supplies for Wii and DS hardware improved during the month."

Pachter did acknowledge that April "has been among the hardest [months] we have had to forecast." He continued, "In addition to the ever-changing Wii supply situation, we are faced with the launches of three phenomenal sellers in April. We estimate that Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto IV sold 3.3 million units in its first six days in the U.S. (total sales of $210 million), and that Nintendo's Pokemon Mystery Dungeon and Mario Kart Wii each sold 1.25 million units (total sales of around $110 million). Since April 2007, Nintendo has manufactured 1.8 million Wiis per month, shipping an average of only 600,000 per month to the U.S. The company announced its intention to ship 25 million Wiis this fiscal year, implying its intent to increase production to 2.4 million in July. Because the U.S. has received only around 1/3 of total Wii production to-date, instead of a more normal 40%, there has been a severe shortage of Wii supply here that has as yet to let up. We believe that U.S. supply should have been somewhere between 720,000 – 900,000 units per month (40 – 50% of total units produced), and expect supply to grow to over 1 million per month in August and beyond."