Pachter: Wii to Dominate as Xbox 360 Outsells PS3 in May

[blackdelsol94]

Pachter: Wii to Dominate as Xbox 360 Outsells PS3 in May
The Wii is expected to sell triple the units for Xbox 360 and more than triple the PS3. Software sales growth should be in the 30-39 percent growth range, according to analyst forecasts.
by James Brightman on Monday, June 09, 2008


With the May NPD video game sales data expected this Thursday, analysts are beginning to chime in with their forecasts. Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter believes software sales will be up 39 percent to $530 million, driven by Nintendo's Wii Fit as well as continued sales of recent top releases such as Take-Two's GTA IV and Nintendo's Mario Kart Wii, and further contribution from games like Nintendo's Wii Play, Activision's Guitar Hero III, and Electronic Arts' Rock Band. Pachter expects 13 games to sell over 100,000 units in May, compared to 11 games in May 2007.

In terms of hardware, once again Nintendo is expected to dominate. Pachter forecasts 750,000 unit sales for Wii, tripling Xbox 360's 250,000 units. The PS3 is expected to sell slightly less than Xbox 360 with 225,000 units. On the portable side, the DS is forecast to rack up another 550,000 units compared to 200,000 for the PSP. Finally, the aging PS2 is forecast to sell just 125,000.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian also provided his forecast in advance of the NPD data, issuing a slightly more conservative estimate of 30 percent software sales growth. In addition to the aforementioned Wii Fit, GTA IV and Mario Kart Wii, Sebastian believes Sega's Iron Man and Activision's Enemy Territory: Quake Wars will help boost May sales.

Sebastian also reiterated that "we continue to expect Xbox 360 price cuts this year (~$50 reduction), while Sony appears content to focus on achieving PlayStation profitability at the current PS3 price points."

[tha_con]

lol, I bet both his 360 and PS3 numbers are too high again.

I'm going to make a completely random guess here. 220 Xbox 360, and 180 to 200K for PS3.

[blackdelsol94]

Originally Posted by tha_con

lol, I bet both his 360 and PS3 numbers are too high again.

I'm going to make a completely random guess here. 220 Xbox 360, and 180 to 200K for PS3.

Seems to fall in line with what most people are predicting.

I would say both the 360 and PS3 will be around 225k, give or take 25k. Nothing extreme here. Depends how much of a push was given by GTA IV...

And on the other side of the spectrum, the Wii continues to dominate. Seriously, not only can we not keep Wii's in stock for more than a day, (which includes large shipments of 50-60 units), we also cannot keep either Mario Kart or Wii Fit in stock. It's ridiculous.

[tha_con]

Yea, it's pretty intense.

My buddy back home say's they're selling more PS3's for MGS4 than they did for GTA IV, but I'm pretty sure that's isolated and not the 'norm'.

[blackdelsol94]

Originally Posted by tha_con

Yea, it's pretty intense.

My buddy back home say's they're selling more PS3's for MGS4 than they did for GTA IV, but I'm pretty sure that's isolated and not the 'norm'.

Actually, I wouldn't doubt that to be honest. GTA IV was huge, but it was also a multi platform title. MGS4 is exclusive to the PS3, so I see it pushing more hardware (for the PS3), than GTA IV... but I could be wrong.