Blu-ray Triumph May Be Short-Lived for Sony

[divinewisdom]

Sony executives may be popping the champagne corks after winning the high-definition war between the Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats -- but at least one observer suggests any celebration might be premature.


On Tuesday, Toshiba, HD DVD's main backer, dropped the format. And on Wednesday, Amazon announced it will feature Blu-ray, although it is not yet discontinuing HD-DVD products. It joined Wal-Mart, Best Buy and others in favoring Blu-ray. Universal Studios, one of the few major Hollywood producers backing HD DVD, also switched to Blu-ray.

No Champagne Yet

Sony "better not be drinking any champagne yet," warned Yankee Group analyst Mike Goodman. He said they now face a possibly more formidable competitor -- online or over-the-air digital distribution.

In fact, his research firm projects that in five years video on demand will account for 30 to 50 percent of movie rentals and sales via cable, satellite, telco or the Internet. "The majority of that marketplace will be high-definition fare," he said.

Other observers have noted that, for Internet distribution, there is the problem of displaying movie fare on a TV screen, rather than on a PC. Goodman countered that downloading to TVs has already started. He noted that Microsoft's Xbox 360 has accounted for as many as 380 million "pieces of content" downloaded -- including games and other material -- and virtually all of it has been played on a TV.

Goodman said he "wouldn't be shocked" if Microsoft, which had backed HD DVD and offered a HD DVD player for the Xbox, now releases a Blu-ray add-on. His perspective is that Microsoft's support of HD DVD "was intended to delay the success of Blu-ray, because they fundamentally believe that the future is digital distribution" on demand. A delay in Blu-ray meant on-demand distribution would have more time to develop, he said. Most of Microsoft's effort toward distribution, he pointed out, has been for the online service Xbox Live.

'Last Hardware Player'

One game console expected to gain from Blu-ray's triumph is Sony's PlayStation 3, which includes a Blu-ray player. Ironically, the company was heavily criticized because the player delayed the console's release and increased its price. That decision, however, was instrumental in creating Blu-ray's installed base.

But it still remains to be seen if Sony's investment in Blu-ray will pay off. Goodman thinks Blu-ray is "not going to have the success that DVD did." In fact, he predicted Blu-ray "will be the last hardware player for movies." He also suggested there may not be another hardware generation of videogame consoles -- no PlayStation 4, for instance.

In the not-too-distant future, he said, when you want a game or a movie, you'll download it and, if you want a disc, you'll write one.

Blu-ray Triumph May Be Short-Lived for Sony - Yahoo! News

[clayton]

whatever ppl think they know so much better than SONY. things have been leaning that way for a while now (on demand and downloads) and correct me if i'm wrong here, but if you want to burn a hi-def disc, it's going to be blu-ray media in a blu-ray burner. not to mention ps3 games are hard blu-ray media.

[tha_con]

OnDemand Services are available all over the world right now, free, included with cable and satellite services. Have DVD sales gone down? No you say?

Check Mate.

[Shiba-Kun]

It's an issue that will come more to the forefront over time. Divinewisdom like me is here in SoCal where the WGA strike just ended. One of the main topics was over royalties for emerging technologies and the studios most definitely didn't want to give up financial control over downloadable content. If the studios found that to be of great importance, then I think Sony (since they also have a production studio arm to their company) is very aware of it too.

B-R imho is the winner for this round no doubt. But just as VHS, LD, DVD, etc. all are having a lifecycle, B-R will come and go too. All is transitory.

[tha_con]

Originally Posted by Shiba-Kun

It's an issue that will come more to the forefront over time. Divinewisdom like me is here in SoCal where the WGA strike just ended. One of the main topics was over royalties for emerging technologies and the studios most definitely didn't want to give up financial control over downloadable content. If the studios found that to be of great importance, then I think Sony (since they also have a production studio arm to their company) is very aware of it too.

B-R imho is the winner for this round no doubt. But just as VHS, LD, DVD, etc. all are having a lifecycle, B-R will come and go too. All is transitory.

I agree completely, but whoever this guy who wrote the article is, he's batshit insane.

OnDemand services (for those who don't know, digital download) are already available in nearly every single state in the US.

In Kansas, I can go to my OnDemand services right now and I have instant access to nearly 50 movies from HBO, 50 from Showtime, and 50 from Cinemax. Tons of ep's of shows like South Park, Chappelles Show, Daily Show, Colbert Report, etc. Discover Channel? Check.

There are even premium services for new movies and / or specials. This is nothing 'new'. It's been available to anyone with digital cable. Assuming that it's going to have a real world impact on the sales and or lively hood of a disc based format is retarded, plain and simple.

iTunes is here, full force. CD sales haven't stopped. iPods have been around for what, 5 years?

OnDemand, Pay Per View, and even more recently, digital downloading via NetFlix and other companies, are all available. DVD sales continue to rise. Fact is, in order for Digital Downloads to 'take over' the rest of the world would have to adopt it as well. This will require billions of dollars in expenses to get lines sufficient enough to deliver HD quality in a timely manner.

Even then, HD content streamed OTA or over cable is no where near the quality of disc based HD media.

Will DD eventually be a main form of content delivery? Of course. Will it be any time within the next 5 years? No. 5 years from now, people will stop buying DVD's and move on to Blu-Ray players. Cable services will offer OnDemand that is far greater than we know it today. These services will NOT cancel one or the other out, period. They will co-exist.

THAT is the reality of it, and quite frankly, suggesting anything else is merely sour grapes from some jackass who invested in HD DVD, IMO.

These 'analysts' are all pissed because most of their dumb asses couldn't see the writing on the wall, they were wrong on so many different fronts, and now they are jumping ship to say 'omg Digital download lawl teh new frontier, Blu-Ray am doomed!".

It's pathetic that they recieve a paycheck for this stupid dribble.

[LevelSevenCivic]

I don't see Blu-Ray having a short life at all either. Digital HD content will continue to become more and more available over time but, there is just something about putting money on the counter and walking away with a product that you can feel, see, hear, smell and if so desired.... taste.

Blu Ray adoption rate will continue to rise as the prices drop but, as long as SD-DVD content is still available, BluRay still has a battle to fight.

I personally cant wait for the pricing on BR-RW drives to drop. It's scary to think how much SD content you can stuff into a BR disc.

[j.steimer04]

Im seeing Bluray dominating right now.

[dmb]

Divine is just sour he paid 250 for an HD-DVD player just recently rofl...



anyone on AVS forums who appreciates HD movies will never substitute ondemand for blu-ray/hd-dvd


that's like choosing 128kps mp3 over the master recording....


50 MBS video > 6 mhz of bandwidth

[divinewisdom]

Originally Posted by dmb

Divine is just sour he paid 250 for an HD-DVD player just recently rofl...

anyone on AVS forums who appreciates HD movies will never substitute ondemand for blu-ray/hd-dvd

that's like choosing 128kps mp3 over the master recording....

50 MBS video > 6 mhz of bandwidth

hahaha. i am not sour about anything; like i said i have blu ray and hd dvd. AVS forum is what? 4000 people?

i thinki the whole point about this is that there are many analyst that think, including many studios and corporations, Downloads will be the future.

i tend to agree with that to a certain extent. i like to look at all the progression of media see the difference.
a-trac = tape, tape = cd, cd = mp3, vhs = dvd; and now dvd = ????

anyone else see the progression getting smaller and smaller in difference? the smaller the difference in progression, the longer it will take for consumers to jump on, the longer it takes for mass adoption the more chances the technology will be outdated.

i like to think that blu ray (and hd dvd) will not be a direct replacement for DVDs. while blu ray will be the mean of distribution for next gen DVD; there will be fierce competition bitting into the pie from digital downloads itunes, amazon, microsoft, and even the studios themselves.

[blackdelsol94]

Digital download is not as foreign of a concept as many are making it out to be. divinewisdom is not crazy for bringing this idea to the table.

I agree that Blu-ray has won the current format war, and I don't see it leaving anytime soon. However, DD rising to the top in the next 5-10 years is a definite possibility.

Blu-Ray obviously offers the benefit of being a physical media that you can carry around and play for years and years, and this no doubt appeals to many people. However, the benefits of instant ordering and playing from the couch are going to be hard to beat. Also, it is very difficult and legally questionable to get your HD content off of a Blu-Ray Disc for storage or backup on a hard drive.

As tha_con pointed out, a similar business model can be observed in what is 'On Demand.'

With that said, there are many possibilities as to what could happen. DD may never catch on, or it may blow Blu-ray out of the water. Though IMO, I would agree with tha_con: physical media and DD are two things that could easily co-exist.

In any case, Blu-ray's fight/victory over HD-DVD was only the beginning. Almost one in the same as what Shiba said: "just as VHS, LD, DVD, etc. all are having a lifecycle, B-R will come and go too. All is transitory."

[divinewisdom]

Originally Posted by blackdelsol94

Digital download is not as foreign of a concept as many are making it out to be. divinewisdom is not crazy for bringing this idea to the table.

I agree that Blu-ray has won the current format war, and I don't see it leaving anytime soon. However, DD rising to the top in the next 5-10 years is a definite possibility.

Blu-Ray obviously offers the benefit of being a physical media that you can carry around and play for years and years, and this no doubt appeals to many people. However, the benefits of instant ordering and playing from the couch are going to be hard to beat. Also, it is very difficult and legally questionable to get your HD content off of a Blu-Ray Disc for storage or backup on a hard drive.

As tha_con pointed out, a similar business model can be observed in what is 'On Demand.'

With that said, there are many possibilities as to what could happen. DD may never catch on, or it may blow Blu-ray out of the water. Though IMO, I would agree with tha_con: physical media and DD are two things that could easily co-exist.

In any case, Blu-ray's fight/victory over HD-DVD was only the beginning. Almost one in the same as what Shiba said: "just as VHS, LD, DVD, etc. all are having a lifecycle, B-R will come and go too. All is transitory."

i agree that its hard to say whether DD will be mainstream or blu ray or something else in the next 5-10 years. Technologically, the advancement is moving at an ever faster pace. there are many possbilities out there.

though on the physical idea of being able to hold and touch something you buy is not as big as it use to. MP3's?

[tha_con]

Originally Posted by divinewisdom

i agree that its hard to say whether DD will be mainstream or blu ray or something else in the next 5-10 years. Technologically, the advancement is moving at an ever faster pace. there are many possbilities out there.

though on the physical idea of being able to hold and touch something you buy is not as big as it use to. MP3's?

CD Sales still trump digital music sales. Even now the Music industry is in a decline, dropping nearly 12% in revenue, but CD's still outsell digital music. The ratio is about 60/40 right now.

Still, movies and music are two completely different things. A 3 minute MP3 is not comparable to a 2 hour movie, in both length and file size.

I've said it once, I'll say it again, and a thousand times after that. DD will not become main stream. Ever. What will is on demand services through cable companies. You will never see an iTunes like business model for Movies. What you will see is something similar current digital cable set ups, with on demand sections for PPV and / or free on demand services (with commercials).

Movie Studios are in a MUCH stronger position to avoid Digital Distribution compared to the music industry. The music industry was hit hard because it was easy to download and use MP3's on mutliple devices. It's not quite as easy to download a movie and copy it to a DVD (for the average joe at least).

Just saying, at most, we'll see On Demand services up and running full speed within the next 3 years (which is NOT Digital Distribution) and Blu-Ray beginning a DVD take over.

More evidence to support studio's keeping DD in house is Blu-Rays "digital versions" of films on Blu-Ray discs, which can be transferred to certain portable devices, like iPods and PSP's, included with the Blu-Ray disc. These movie studios are going to keep DD in house, period, and it'll be unlikely that you'll see DD getting strong support from studios like you do with Physical media.

Blu-Ray and OnDemand will coexist, but DD is far fetched and won't happen for movies.